CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z TUE 21/12 - 06Z WED 22/12 2004
ISSUED: 21/12 01:15Z
FORECASTER: VAN DER VELDE

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean including the coasts of southern Italy, Greece and Turkey.

General thunderstorms are forecast across the southern Gulf of Biscay

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will continue to build over the European mainland. North of this system, pressure gradients will steepen at the approach of new active depressions. South of the high pressure area, over the Mediterranean, a longwave 500 hPa trough and a filling low surface pressure area cause unstable conditions and lift, especially on the warm air advection side over Greece, Crete and coastal western Turkey. Kinematic conditions are benign, so severe weather is not expected, except for an isolated waterspout. The mountains in northern Spain will receive snow from possibly thundery showers forming in the cold unstable air flowing over the Gulf of Biscay, along with forced ascent.

DISCUSSION

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